While it's not the Grand Slam showdown like some would have predicted, this afternoon’s meeting of Ireland and France is everything but.
The Guinness Six Nations title won't be decided in this afternoon’s 80 minutes at Aviva Stadium, although whoever does come out on top will have one hand on the trophy heading into the final week.
Ireland, three points clear of the visitors coming into this game, could take a major stride towards a first ever men’s Six Nations three-in-a-row. France, with their huge points difference advantage after racking up big wins against Wales and Italy, would be in the box-seat if they pick off an away win.
While it’s been given the matinee slot of 2.15pm this afternoon, on paper it’s the game of the championship, never mind the game of round four.
Narratively, the talking points have had time to cook away in the pot over the last fortnight. France have been frustrated by the lack of consistency in Garry Ringrose’s suspension following his red card against Wales, while the Irish camp have tried to own the agenda by announcing Peter O’Mahony, Cian Healy and Conor Murray will be playing their final home Test matches this week.
Even the more frivolous talking points have emerged, with the cartoon villain of Irish sport, Thierry Henry, brought into their Marcoussis camp for a pep-talk. Neil Back and Vincent Clerc must have been unavailable.
Tactically, it’s equally fascinating. France’s well-telegraphed 7:1 bench split is a blunt indication of where they see the game being won and lost, while Simon Easterby responded with six forwards on his replacements bench, and the even bolder call to name Jamie Osborne on the right wing.
While Osborne’s versatility across the backline does offer Ireland some degree of flexibility you only have to look back on the last time they used a 6:2 split to see the risks. In last year’s round four defeat to England at Twickenham, Ireland played the last 30 minutes of the game with Jamison Gibson-Park on the wing after Calvin Nash and his replacement Ciarán Frawley were both forced off with head knocks.
Similarly, Ireland benefitted against Scotland last month, when Gregor Townsend’s side lost Finn Russell and Darcy Graham early on.
Even accounting for the 6:2 split, and an injury to Mack Hansen, Osborne’s selection on the right wing came a surprise. The 23-year-old has experience playing on the wing for Leinster, most recently in the Investec Champions Cup pool stage in January, but all of those appearances have come on the left wing, a position that is more favourable to Osborne’s powerful left foot.
Easterby allayed concerns that Osborne’s kicking game would be negated on the right touchline, and hinted that he’s likely to switch positions with Hugo Keenan if and when Ireland are looking to exit their own 22.
While Osborne (below) doesn't have the speed and acceleration of France’s Louis Bielle-Biarrey, one of the big reasons why the Leinster man has been picked ahead of Calvin Nash – who previously deputised for Mack Hansen – could lie in the aerial battle.
Osborne – who is listed as 6ft 4in and 95kg – is around four inches and 16kg bigger than Bielle-Biarrey, who will stand opposite him on the touchline this afternoon.
Thinking back to the Rugby World Cup, it’s hard to forget how South Africa exploited France with their kicking game, and the likelihood is that Ireland and Sam Prendergast will target that side of the pitch with contestable kicks and hopefully take advantage of that size difference.
Aside from that right wing call, Easterby went as expected. Caelan Doris comes back in among four changes from the side that won in Wales having recovered from a knee injury, and the captain’s injury may have also factored into his decision to go with an extra forward on the bench.
Hugo Keenan, Bundee Aki and Finlay Bealham also come back into the starting team, 12 of whom started the 38-17 win away to France last year.
While Ireland have won three games from three this year, all of which were solid without being spectacular, France’s performances have been far more volatile.
They nilled a beleaguered Wales side in Paris on the opening night and put 73 points and 11 tries on Italy in Rome last time out, but in between those hammerings their Grand Slam hopes were blown apart on a shambolic evening at Twickenham against England.
At times in that 26-25 defeat, Galthie’s side looked irresistible in attack, which made the result all the more perplexing, with some barely believable handling errors and some disinterested defending eventually haunting them, and it led to Damian Penaud and Matthieu Jalibert being dropped for the recent win against Italy.
There’s a feeling that Les Bleus are still working their way through a World Cup hangover, having invested so much – mentally, physically, and financially – in their home tournament.
They have the best player in the world, and possibly the best player of all time at scrum-half in Antoine Dupont, and even without the Toulouse nine they have the talent, skill and size that should rival any other country on paper.
In Six Nations terms, they have a much higher ceiling than any other team, and are better placed than any other side to take advantage of the brief lapses in concentration that have characterised Ireland’s three wins. But while they have the highest ceiling, they also have a much lower floor than the defending champions.
"This is considered the golden generation.
"This is probably the most support that there has ever been given to a French team.
"Ultimately there’s pressure on them and on their coach to deliver."
There was an air of carelessness about the French showing against England, but the worry from an Irish point of view is that it’s hard to see how they turn up in Dublin similarly complacent.
It has all the makings of a classic.
Verdict: Draw
Ireland: Hugo Keenan; Jamie Osborne, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, James Lowe; Sam Prendergast, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Finlay Bealham; Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Beirne; Peter O'Mahony, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt)
Replacements: Rob Herring, Cian Healy, Thomas Clarkson, James Ryan, Jack Conan, Ryan Baird, Conor Murray, Jack Crowley
France: Thomas Ramos; Damian Penaud, Pierre-Louis Barassi, Yoram Moefana, Louis Bielle-Biarrey; Romain Ntamack, Antoine Dupont (capt); Jean-Baptiste Gros, Peato Mauvaka, Uini Atonio; Mikael Guillard, Thibaud Flament; Francois Cros, Paul Boudehent, Gregory Alldritt.
Replacements: Julien Marchand, Cyril Baille, Dorian Aldegheri, Emmanuel Meafou, Hugo Auradou, Oscar Jegou, Anthony Jelonch, Maxime Lucu
Referee: Angus Gardner
