With two rounds to go in the Allianz National League, the make-up of this year's Tailteann Cup is taking shape.
The fourth edition of the second-tier football championship will see 17 teams competing to etch their name alongside Westmeath, Meath and Down as tournament winners.
The reality is that a handful of teams will be doing everything in their power over the final two rounds of the league to ensure that they are competing for Sam, rather than the Tailteann.
Many would argue that those struggling to make the top-16 counties may be better served operating in a competition that offers a genuine chance of silverware, but the appeal of being in the race for Sam - in theory rather than practice - and a provincial run often remains the number one target.
There is a lot of football to be played - 58 games across league and championship before we know the Sam Maguire and Tailteann line-ups.
The second-tier competition is a simple one, taking the bottom-ranked 16 teams after the completion of the league (Divisions 3 and 4 for 2025), plus New York to compete in four groups, similar to the All-Ireland series.
However, Down – currently in the Division 2 relegation zone – are guaranteed a place in the All-Ireland championship, the perk to winning last year’s Tailteann Cup.
Any team that reaches a provincial final, regardless of the league they are in, are also excluded from the Tailteann Cup. All of which means there will be some counties anxiously watching the provincial championships to await their fate.
No county will be fretting quite as much as Cork. The 2010 All-Ireland champions are in a rather precarious position in Division 2, with two wins from five.
They are currently sixth, but if the standings were to finish as they appear now, they are likely to become the 21st team to appear in the Tailteann Cup as only an unlikely victory over Kerry in the Munster semi-final would keep them in the All-Ireland series.
Since the shock win in 2020, they have lost the last four championship games by an average of almost 10 points, though the last two contests - both one-score games - would indicate that the gap has been narrowed to some degree.
Indeed if the final positions after Round 7 replicated the current order of play – with Down relegated and Clare failing to climb out of Division 3 - it would mean only fourth place in Division 2 or better would guarantee progression to the All-Ireland series.
The provincial draw has a significant impact on the fate of those counties with a foot in either competition given the carrot for reaching a final.
With Galway and Mayo on either side of the draw, Connacht isn’t a likely place for a side in the bottom two divisions to eye a path to a provincial final.
In the bear-pit of Ulster football, with Down assured of a place, Fermanagh are perhaps the best-placed of the 'outsiders’ to reach a provincial decider on 11 May. Victory over the Mourne men would leave them 70 minutes away from the Ulster showpiece, but their opponents would be one from Donegal, Derry and Monaghan.
Such a run would put those in Division 2 midtable at further risk, including neighbours Cavan. The Breffni men currently occupy fourth spot in the table, but their penultimate game is at Dr Hyde Park before finishing against a Cork side scrapping for a result.
A Down relegation would mean sixth position wouldn’t suffice, while Clare also failing to earn promotion would mean the side in fifth would also fall short, unless the Banner were to suffer a shock Munster semi-final defeat to Tipperary or Waterford.
It's the Munster draw, and more specifically, the inclusion of Cork and Kerry on the same side of the draw, that looms large over the fate of those in Division 2.
Clare’s favourable draw means that anything other than a third successive provincial final against Kerry – the Kingdom have won the last two by an aggregate of 21 points – would represent a major shock.
The success, or otherwise, in getting back to the second tier after a two-year absence, has significance for those above them.
Having lost only one game to date, they travel to take on Sligo today while they conclude their group games with fixtures against two of the three teams ahead of them, Laois (ahead on points difference) and in-form Offaly.
It’s a four-horse race as things stand, but if Peter Keane’s side were to remain in the third tier, it would likely spell Tailteann Cup for a side in Division 2. Throw in the possibility of Down falling through the trapdoor – they welcome an aggrieved Westmeath to Newry next weekend before tackling promotion-seeking Monaghan in the final round – and Cork, Louth and Cavan could be scrapping it out for a single place.
The Rebels play both of the aforementioned sides in their final outings – they lost to both in the 2024 league - with the home clash against the Wee County looking pivotal with both sides sitting on four points. Another loss at Páirc Uí Chaoimh and they go into the final day vying with Down to stay up and their All-Ireland series chances hanging by a thread. A victory keeps everything in the mix.
Ger Brennan’s side did the double over Cork in league and championship last year and unlike the Munster side, and indeed Cavan, they have a realistic shot at a provincial final.
They take on Wexford (Division 4), or more likely Laois (Division 3) in their quarter-final, with Kildare (Division 3) or Westmeath (Division 2) awaiting in the last four. A third successive Dublin v Louth Leinster final would raise few eyebrows.
Plenty of football and permutations yet before the Tailteann Cup sides are locked in.
